Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning

摘要

Backcasting represents a form of explicitly normative scenario analysis. This paper reviews some of the key theoretical and methodological issues that are raised by a backcasting approach and discusses how these are addressed in the Georgia Basin Futures Project, a five year participatory integrated assessment project focusing on modeling, scenario analysis and community engagement. The paper argues for a "second generation" form of backcasting, where the desired future is not determined in advance of the analysis but is an emergent property of the process of engaging with users and project partners. In this sense backcasting contributes to a process of social learning about possible and desirable futures.