A portfolio approach to develop a theory of future management accounting systems

摘要

Purpose – The paper seeks to introduce a method based on the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio approach to outline a theory of future firm, its environment, and management accounting systems (MASs). The approach is based on the target to choose propositions for the theory to maximise expected credibility. Design/methodology/approach – A conceptual approach with mathematical modelling is presented. It is illustrated by a set propositions extracted from a survey presented previously. The survey results are used to design a theory of future MASs by choosing an efficient sub-set of propositions with the help of combinatory optimisation. Findings – When maximising the credibility of a theory of future MAS, the trade-off between the mean and the variance of expert judgments should be considered. The resulting theory depends on the level for disagreement aversion by the theory builder. The approach is a useful tool to design a theory of future MASs. Research limitations/implications – How to select the level of trade-off between the mean and the variance of judgments should be analysed further. The methods to design propositions for a theory should be researched in more detail. Possible instrumentation and response biases should be assessed. Practical implications – This approach provides a practical method to analyse judgments to form a consistent set (portfolio) of propositions. It can be applied to any theory building where propositions cannot be tested (such as in futures research) but only assessed by experts. Originality/value – The paper includes a new approach for researchers, consultants, and teachers to form a theory of future phenomena such as future MASs.