Brave New GIS Worlds Revisited

摘要

This commentary reassesses and revisits assumptions and speculations in a paper we published twenty years ago (Wegener and Masser, 1996). There we tried to capture the range of perceptions of the impact of geographical information systems on society in different countries by developing four scenarios for geographic information systems (GIS) diffusion: a Trend scenario characterised by the incremental diffusion of information systems along the lines experienced in the recent past, a Market scenario based on the total commodification of information which restricts access to the more powerful, a Big Brother scenario in which surveillance and control by a fully integrated omniscient system pervades all aspects of life, and a Beyond GIS scenario in which information in the public domain contributes to greater democratisation and grassroots empowerment. The results of our comparison suggest that the four scenarios would not change very much if they were defined now. But it also has become apparent that the reality of the present day contains elements of all four of them and that most likely all four underestimate the changes lying ahead. Here we speculate on this future.