Using a discrete choice experiment to predict the penetration possibility of environmentally friendly vehicles

摘要

Amid the expansion of environmentally friendly vehicles as a strategy to cope with climate change and avoid fine particles, South Korea has set a penetration goal and implemented a support policy. The present study uses a discrete choice experiment and a mixed logit model to analyze consumer preferences for vehicles and predict the dynamic market share of environmentally friendly vehicles. The estimated results show that under given conditions, it is implausible to meet the target for the penetration of eco-vehicles (6.13% for electric vehicles and 2.6% for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2025). The scenario analysis suggests that it is possible to meet the penetration target if a subsidy is provided for eco-vehicles to the extent that the price drops to the level of gasoline vehicles and the number of charging stations is increased more than threefold compared to the target. However, the study found that stronger support is required to accomplish the penetration target for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.