Adaptive capacity of winegrape varieties cultivated in Greece to climate change: current trends and future projections

摘要

Aim: This research aimed to: (1) investigate the relationships between harvest dates and berry composition with air temperature during important periods during the growing season, across a range of indigenous and international winegrape varieties grown in wine regions over the majority of Greece; (2) calculate growing degree-days (GDD) from 1st of April until the harvest date of each variety and group the winegrape varieties according to their heat requirements; and (3) predict future harvest dates based upon these heat requirements under different representative emission pathways ( i.e. , RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and future time periods (2041-2065 and 2071-2095) using an ensemble projection dataset. Methods and results: The analysis of heat requirements based on GDD from 1~(st) of April to harvest date identified consistent maturity groups of the varieties studied, especially for indigenous Greek varieties. Trend analysis using the basic linear regression model showed that harvest dates have shifted earlier, during the last few decades, due to warmer conditions (especially during the ripening period) in most cases. In addition, trends in potential alcohol (acid) levels were found to be positively (negatively) correlated with maximum air temperatures in the majority of cases. Analysis of future projections using a global multi-climate model ensemble dataset (10 regional climate models) showed that harvest dates are projected to shift earlier up to 40 days in two future time periods ( i.e. , 2041-2065 and 2071-2095) depending on the variety and the emission pathway. Conclusions: Harvest dates of the early ripening varieties were associated more with the variations in maximum air temperatures during March to July, while mid- and late ripening varieties appeared to be affected more by maximum air temperatures during the ripening period. In addition, late ripening, mostly indigenous, varieties were less impacted by temperature increases compared to international varieties. Significance of the study: The indigenous Greek varieties appear better adapted to the recent and projected future climate of the region, responding less to warming as compared to international varieties in the majority of the study cases.