Regional Policies Targeting Residential Solid Fuel and Agricultural Emissions Can Improve Air Quality and Public Health in the Greater Bay Area and Across China

摘要

Air pollution exposure is a leading public health problem in China. The majority of the total air pollution disease burden is from fine particulate matter (PM_(2.5)) exposure, with smaller contributions from ozone (O_(3)) exposure. Recent emission reductions have reduced PM_(2.5)exposure. However, levels of exposure and the associated risk remain high, some pollutant emissions have increased, and some sectors lack effective emission control measures. We quantified the potential impacts of relevant policy scenarios on ambient air quality and public health across China. We show that PM_(2.5)exposure inside the Greater Bay Area (GBA) is strongly controlled by emissions outside the GBA. We find that reductions in residential solid fuel use and agricultural fertilizer emissions result in the greatest reductions in PM_(2.5)exposure and the largest health benefits. A 50% transition from residential solid fuel use to liquefied petroleum gas outside the GBA reduced PM_(2.5)exposure by 15% in China and 3% within the GBA, and avoided 191,400 premature deaths each year across China. Reducing agricultural fertilizer emissions of ammonia by 30% outside the GBA reduced PM_(2.5)exposure by 4% in China and 3% in the GBA, avoiding 56,500 annual premature deaths across China. Our simulations suggest that reducing residential solid fuel or industrial emissions will reduce both PM_(2.5)and O_(3)exposure, whereas other policies may increase O_(3)exposure. Improving particulate air quality inside the GBA will require consideration of residential solid fuel and agricultural sectors, which currently lack targeted policies, and regional cooperation both inside and outside the GBA. Key Points Ambient fine particulate matter exposure inside the Greater Bay Area is strongly controlled by emissions outside the Greater Bay Area Residential solid fuel and agricultural emissions lack effective controls that could improve air quality and public health across China Improving particulate air quality inside the Greater Bay Area will require regional cooperation inside and outside the Greater Bay Area