Formalized assessment of the sensitivity of economic sectors to the use of blockchain technologies (on the example of the Russian Federation)

摘要

Distributed data storage technologies are becoming an integral part of the modern economy and are beginning to have an increasing impact on the prospects and competitiveness of its development. This, in turn, predetermines the high growth rates of the blockchain technology market in the world. These dynamics will form changes not only in the IT markets, but also in the entire financial and economic systems, penetrated with information, digital decisionmaking processes. In this regard, relying on the functional capabilities of distributed data storage technologies, as well as taking into account the high dynamics of the processes of their penetration into the economic environment, it seems to be a very important and urgent task to develop methodological approaches to assess the risks and opportunities for the national economic system in the context of future changes. It is important to note, that the solution of the problem should, in order to objectify the results, rely on the methods of formalized analysis using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling. Based on this approach to the study of the academic and research problem, the work proposes an algorithm for assessing the influence of blockchain technologies on the dynamics of transformation of key development parameters of separate sectors of the economy. Methodologically, the calculations are based mainly on the construction of a cointegration model, that allows to determine the main effects and potential impact of possible changes in certain areas of economic activity as part of the penetration of blockchain technologies into the economic environment.