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Tracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertainties

机译:跟踪全局大气水分和相关不确定性的流动

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Many processes in hydrology and Earth system science relate to continental moisture recycling, the contribution of terrestrial evaporation to precipitation. For example, the effects of land-cover changes on regional rainfall regimes depend on this process. To study moisture recycling, a range of moisture-tracking models are in use that are forced with output from atmospheric models but differ in various ways. They can be Eulerian (grid-based) or Lagrangian (trajectory-based), have two or three spatial dimensions, and rely on a range of other assumptions. Which model is most suitable depends not only on the purpose of the study but also on the quality and resolution of the data with which it is forced. Recently, the high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data set has become the state of the art, paving the way for a new generation of moisture-tracking models. However, it is unclear how the new data can best be used to obtain accurate estimates of atmospheric moisture flows. Here we develop a set of moisture-tracking models forced with ERA5 data and systematically test their performance regarding continental evaporation recycling ratio, distances of moisture flows, and “footprints” of evaporation from seven point sources across the globe. We report simulation times to assess possible trade-offs between accuracy and speed. Three-dimensional Lagrangian models were most accurate and ran faster than Eulerian versions for tracking water from single grid cells. The rate of vertical mixing of moisture in the atmosphere was the greatest source of uncertainty in moisture tracking. We conclude that the recently improved resolution of atmospheric reanalysis data allows for more accurate moisture tracking results in a Lagrangian setting, but that considerable uncertainty regarding turbulent mixing remains. We present an efficient Lagrangian method to track atmospheric moisture flows from any location globally using ERA5 reanalysis data and make the code for this model, which we call UTrack-atmospheric-moisture, publicly available.
机译:水文和地球系统科学中的许多过程都涉及欧洲水分回收,陆地蒸发到降水的贡献。例如,土地覆盖变化对区域降雨制度的影响取决于这一过程。为了研究水分回收,使用各种水分跟踪模型,迫使来自大气模型的输出,但不同的方式不同。它们可以是欧拉(基于网格)或拉格朗日(基于轨迹),具有两三个空间尺寸,依赖于各种其他假设。哪种型号最适合不仅取决于研究的目的,而且还取决于它被迫的数据的质量和分辨率。最近,高分辨率的ERA5再分析数据集已成为最先进的现有技术,为新一代的水分跟踪模型铺平道路。然而,目前尚不清楚新数据如何最好地用于获得大气水分流动的准确估计。在这里,我们开发了一系列迫使ERA5数据的水分跟踪模型,并系统地测试了关于欧式蒸发回收率的性能,水分流量的距离,以及来自全球七点源的蒸发的“足迹”。我们报告模拟时间以评估精度和速度之间可能的权衡。三维拉格朗日型号最准确,比欧拉版本更快,用于跟踪单个网格电池的水。大气中水分垂直混合速率是水分跟踪中不确定性的最大来源。我们得出结论,最近改善了大气再分析数据的分辨率允许更准确的水分跟踪导致拉格朗日设置,但是对湍流混合的情况下具有相当大的不确定性。我们提出了一种高效的拉格朗日方法来跟踪来自全球的任何位置的大气水分流量,使用ERA5重新分析数据,为此模型进行代码,我们称之为UTRACK-amospheric-湿,公开可用。

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