Predicting the Risk of Melanoma Metastasis Using an Immune Risk Score in the Melanoma Cohort

摘要

Melanoma is a highly aggressive cancer, attracting increasing attention worldwide. The 5-year survival rate of patients with metastatic melanoma is low. Therefore, it is critical to identify potential effective biomarkers for diagnosis of melanoma metastasis. In the present study, the melanoma cohort and immune genes were obtained from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and the ImmPort database, respectively. Then we constructed the immune risk score (IRS) using univariate and multivariate logistic analysis. The area under curve (AUC) of IRS in sequencing samples and the initial diagnosis patients were 0.90 and 0.80, respectively. Besides, IRS could add benefits for metastasis diagnosis. For sequencing samples, IRS (OR =16.35, 95% CI=8.74-30.59) increased the odds for melanoma metastasis. Similar results were obtained in the initial diagnosis patients (OR=8.93, 95% CI 3.53-22.61). A composite nomogram was built based on IRS and clinical information with well-fitted calibration curves. We further used other independent melanoma cohorts from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases to confirm the reliability and validity of the IRS (AUC 0.75, OR 1.04, and P value 0.01 in all cohorts). In conclusion, IRS is significantly associated with melanoma metastasis and can be a novel effective signature for predicting the metastasis risk.