Research on Volatility of Public Opinion of Coal Mine Safety Incidents on the Basis of GARCH Model

摘要

GARCH econometric model is used to analyze volatility characteristics of public opinion evolution of coal mine safety incidents. Based on an empirical study on weekly average data of coal mine incidents from January 1, 2011 to May 16, 2014 in Baidu search index, it can be found that: the volatility of public opinion evolution of coal mine safety incidents shows aggregation effect; the model residual error is examined by ARCH effect, and it shows that the volatility of coal mine incidents search index has ARCH effect. Therefore, GARCH model is applicable to the study on the volatility of public opinion evolution of coal mine safety incidents, and the model results can provide prerequisite information for the warning of public opinion of coal mine safety incidents.