Assessments of pugh's modification of childturcotte classification as prognostic indicator in liver cirrhotics: a cohort study

摘要

Abstract The purpose of this study was to validate Pugh's modification of the Child-Turcotte Classification (CTC) in the prediction of mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis. A cohort of 45 cirrhotics collected in Mosul Teaching Hospitals, Iraq, was followed for five years and deaths were recorded at twelve month intervals from the individual dates of diagnosis. Cohort analysis and estimation of Relative Risk measured the strength of the association between Pugh's classes and five year mortality. Life table analysis was used to compute the probability of survival or death in each year during the 5 year period. Results . During the five-year period of study twenty patients died. Eighteen of the total deaths (90%) occurred in class C (severe class) from which 78% of the patients died while only two (15% of the group) died in class B (Relative Risk = 5.2). None died in class A (mild class). In the first year 20% of the cohort died (all from Class C) and the Life Table Analysis showed a high probability of death for the whole cohort. A further 24% died during the next four years.. Conclusion - Pugh's grading can confidently be used in clinical practice to categorize the chances of patient survival. Patients with cirrhosis in the severe grade have a poor chance of survival.