Examining the Impact of Helmet Orientation Visual Cues on the Passing Effectiveness of Quarterbacks in American Football

摘要

Defensive secondary players have long been instructed to “read the quarterback's eyes” in order to anticipate where a pass will be thrown. Where identifying quarterback gaze point is not feasible, head orientation becomes the primary indicator of a quarterback's intended passing target. Helmet stripes and logos may therefore provide visual cues to defensive players that inadvertently aid defensive players in determining the intended passing target. This paper presents the first comprehensive analysis of passing statistics from college football to examine the associations among head orientation cues provided by helmet styles and quarterback performance metrics. Five years of passing data (2009-2013) were analyzed from all 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). For this assessment, helmets were grouped into two categories – No Stripe (referent) and Stripe. Multiple measures of passing performance were used to compare helmet categories including: completion percentage (CP), interceptions per year, interceptions per passing attempt (IPA), Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) and Pass Expected Points Added (EPA). Negative outcomes were determined based on 25th/75th percentiles for the overall group. Least mean squares were used to test for differences among non-parametric variables. Using the percentile cut points, the crude odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to determine the association of helmet categories with each outcome. FBS Year 2013 data represented the most significant findings. The odds of having a high IPA among teams with a helmet stripe was 2.4 times (95% CI: 1.01, 5.90) the odds of having a high IPA among teams without a helmet stripe (p<0.05). Similarly, teams with a striped helmet had a higher IPI (OR: 2.15, 95% CI: 0.91, 5.08; p=0.08). Results in other years did not reach statistical significance and findings were mostly null. The findings suggest a recent trend toward significance among interception-related metrics. Future work will identify factors under which the effects of helmet orientation visual cues may be more pronounced.