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Simulation of Heterogeneous Financial Market Model Based on Cellular Automaton

机译:基于元胞自动机的异构金融市场模型的仿真

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In recent years, researchers analyzed the historical data from the financial markets. They found that the statistical result is different from the classical financial theories, models, and methods. The difference is challenging the three hypotheses which are rational people hypothesis, efficient market hypothesis and random walk hypothesis. We need new perspective and tools to re-study the financial market as a complex system. A cellular automata based heterogeneous financial market model is proposed in this categories which dissertation. In this model, the market participant id divided in to two is the fundamentalists and chartists. A learn rules is used to make sure all the market participant can convert in these two categories. The method emulates the interact behaviors between the market participants, and emulates the overall market behavior. The author analyzes the randomness sources, mean-reverting property, bubble happen and bust, and stationary of this model. The author analyzes the relationships between cellular automata based heterogeneous financial market model and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model and GARCH models. The data simulated by the financial market model is fit the characteristics such as the fat tail of return's distribution, negative skewness, relationship between return and trading volume, the randomness of volatility, and volatility cluster, which the classical theory is failed to explain. How to add more heterogeneity into the model is discussed in this dissertation. In this dissertation, by using the cellular automata as a tool, an option pricing model and a heterogeneous financial market model are proposed. The result of the option pricing model is close to the result calculated by the formula. The simulation of heterogeneous financial market model can explain many phenomenons which can not be explained by the classical theory, such as the fat-tail of return and the bubble happen and bust. The author also preliminary designs the financial market model based on the asynchronous cellular automata. These models and conclusions indicate that cellular automata have a ability to show the randomness of the financial markets and simulate the behaves of the participants in the financial maket.
机译:近年来,研究人员分析了来自金融市场的历史数据。他们发现统计结果与经典的金融理论,模型和方法不同。这种差异挑战了三个假设,即理性的人假设,有效的市场假设和随机游走假设。我们需要新的视角和工具来重新研究作为复杂系统的金融市场。论文提出了基于元胞自动机的异构金融市场模型。在此模型中,将市场参与者id分为两个部分,即基本面主义者和图表主义者。学习规则用于确保所有市场参与者都可以在这两个类别中进行转换。该方法模拟市场参与者之间的交互行为,并模拟整体市场行为。作者分析了该模型的随机性来源,均值回复性,泡沫发生和破裂以及平稳性。作者分析了基于细胞自动机的异构金融市场模型与Ornstein-Uhlenbeck模型和GARCH模型之间的关系。金融市场模型模拟的数据符合收益分布的粗尾,负偏度,收益与交易量之间的关系,波动率的随机性和波动率聚类等特征,而经典理论无法解释这些特征。本文讨论了如何在模型中增加更多的异构性。本文以元胞自动机为工具,提出了期权定价模型和异构金融市场模型。期权定价模型的结果接近于公式计算的结果。异质金融市场模型的仿真可以解释许多经典理论无法解释的现象,例如收益率高的尾巴,泡沫的发生与破灭。作者还初步设计了基于异步蜂窝自动机的金融市场模型。这些模型和结论表明,细胞自动机具有显示金融市场随机性并模拟金融市场参与者行为的能力。

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