在诸多应对气候变化的手段中,CDM已经成为一种比较成熟的市场机制.本文通过对CDM交易过程的解析,并利用计算机仿真技术进行模拟之后发现,发达国家和发展中国家的利益分配是不均等的.考虑到税收因素,当假定参与企业的数量不变时,发达国家的企业成长速度会上升,最终趋于稳定,而发展中国家企业的增长速度会快于发达国家,后期成长速度也维持在相对较高的水平上;当假定参与交易的企业数量有条件地增加时,发达国家新进厂商较少,而发展中国家新进厂商数量却在暴增,最终在企业总规模上超过发达国家.我们从经济学的角度分析了这种利益分配不均等的交易机制,从而解释了现实中为何发达国家逐渐对CDM失去兴趣.%Clean Development Mechanism (CDM),as one of the ways to deal with climate change,has become a mature market mechanism.Based on the analysis of CDM transaction process and using the simulation technology,this paper finds that the interests are not equally distributed between the developed countries and the developing countries.With tax factor taken into consideration and given a fixed number of participating enterprises,the interests for developed countries will rise and then stabilize at high level while the interests for developing countries will rise faster and then stabilize at a higher level;given a conditionally increasing number of participating enterprises,the developed countries will have less new participants while the developing countries will have much more new participants until finally the total number of participants from the developing countries exceeds that from the developed countries.By analyzing the trading mechanism that causes unequal interest distribution from the perspective of economics,this paper manages to explain why the Western developed countries are gradually losing interest in CDM.
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