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Mean-Reverting Valuation of Real Options for International Railway Construction Projects

机译:国际铁路建设项目实物期权的均值回归估值

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This study proposes to employ a mean-reverting model to evaluate the real options embedded in international railway construction projects. The application of mean-reverting models has usually had the difficulty of defining suitable mean-reverting variables for evaluating railway construction projects. The innovative aspect in this research is the formation and calibration of the mean-reverting models we have proposed, in which underlying variables related to the present value of a railway project normalized by either the length of a railway track or the construction time are assumed to follow stochastic mean-reversion processes. Through an example, we show that this assumption enabled us to have evaluated the abandonment option embedded in the construction project by calibrating the parameters with Euler's estimation and maximum likelihood estimation.
机译:本研究建议采用均值回归模型来评估嵌入国际铁路建设项目中的实际选择。均值回复模型的应用通常难以定义合适的均值回复变量来评估铁路建设项目。这项研究的创新之处在于我们提出的均值回复模型的形成和校准,其中假设与铁路项目现值相关的基础变量被铁路长度或施工时间标准化,遵循随机均值回归过程。通过示例,我们证明了这种假设使我们能够通过使用Euler估计和最大似然估计来校准参数,从而评估了嵌入在建设项目中的放弃选项。

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