The 'CAPS' Prediction System and Stock Market Returns

摘要

In The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns (NBER Working Paper No. 17298), co-authors Christopher Avery, Judith Chevalier, and Richard Zeckhauser study the predictive power of approximately 2.5 million stock predictions submitted by individual users to the "CAPS" website run by the Motley Fool company. The data used in this analysis spans the time period between November 2006 and December 2008, a period with significant swings in stock market performance.