The behaviour of the Romanian economy analysed based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

摘要

This paper aims to reveal the dynamic behaviour of the Romanian economy over a period of 14 and a half years, from 2000Q1 to 2014Q2, considering the stochastic action of 20 structural shocks. The study is based on a well-known dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model developed for the Swedish economy, which is adjusted to allow the author to capture the essential characteristics of the target country. Subsequent to the selection of the equations to be implemented for the effective estimation, the calibration of several parameters and the setting of the prior distributions for others, a Monte Carlo Markov Chains method is used, namely the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, in order to reveal the overall results of the estimation process, thereafter properly construed considering their manifestation context.