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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Geosciences >Can a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?
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Can a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?

机译:可以使用Multimodel SuperEnsemble技术进行降水预报吗?

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The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is apostprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parametersreducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysistechniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast modelsin order to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters.Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the differencesbetween the model and the observed field during a so-called training period.Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters liketemperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, theMultimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on theprecipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standardpost-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodelprecipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via theprecipitation PDF estimation.
机译:Multimodel SuperEnsemble技术是一种后处理方法,用于估计天气预报参数,从而减少直接模型输出错误。它与其他整体分析技术的不同之处在于,它使用输入预测模型的适当权重以获取气象参数的组合估计值。加权是通过在所谓的过程中最小化模型与观测场之间的差异来计算的 尽管可以成功地将其应用于温度,相对湿度,风速和平均海平面压力等连续参数,但是Multimodel SuperEnsemble在应用于降水时也能取得很好的效果,这是标准柱很难处理的参数处理方法。在这里,我们介绍了通过降水PDF估算对多模型降水进行预测的方法,并进行了仔细的整体处理。

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