Safety Interval Analysis: A Risk-based Approach To Specify Low-risk Quantities Of Uncertainties For Contractor's Bid Proposals

摘要

By appearing more complex projects, Design-Bid-Build (DBB) contracts could not satisfy new projects requirements and a need to new types of contracts was felt. New contracts requirements differ from previous ones. Challenging the method of proposal offering in design-construct contracts, this paper seeks solutions for more rational proposing of project uncertainties. The problem commences with the question "which duration and price a contractor must propose in a project with design-construct contract?" A part of the answer to this question is the matter of the lowest-risk limit of uncertainties which result from output of Monte Carlo Simulation and its analysis. The output of this analysis is a series of intervals named "safety Intervals" which will be contractors' guide in offering the bid proposal.