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STATISTICAL APPROACH TO INCORPORATE UNCERTAINTIES OF PARAMETERS IN SIMULATION RESULTS AND STABILITY ANALYSIS FOR EARTH DRILLING
STATISTICAL APPROACH TO INCORPORATE UNCERTAINTIES OF PARAMETERS IN SIMULATION RESULTS AND STABILITY ANALYSIS FOR EARTH DRILLING
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机译:地球钻探模拟结果和稳定性分析中参数不确定性的统计方法
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摘要
A method for estimating a probability of a drilling dysfunction or a drilling performance indicator value occurring includes entering drilling-related data having a probability distribution into a mathematical model of a drill string drilling a borehole penetrating the earth and entering drilling parameters into the model for drilling the borehole. The method further includes performing a plurality of drilling simulations using the model, each simulation providing a probability of the drilling dysfunction occurring or a probability of a drilling performance indicator value occurring with associated drilling parameters used in the simulation, selecting a set of drilling parameters that optimizes a drilling objective using the probabilities of the drilling dysfunction occurring or the probabilities of a drilling performance indicator value occurring; and transmitting the selected set of drilling parameters to a signal receiving device.
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