Human interaction with large scale coastal morphological evolution. An assessment of the uncertainty

摘要

Coastal management has to be faced in an integral way accounting for its multi-scale variability and coping with the uncertainties in the prediction of morphological evolution. HUMOR Project (Human interaction with large scale coastal morphological evolution) successfully addressed the task of developing forecasting techniques to better understand the processes governing medium and long-term natural and human-induced changes in the coast. The gain in knowledge was aimed at providing coastal managers with integrated concepts and tools to survey, monitor and exploit the coastal zone on a medium and long-term basis, in the framework of the uncertainty. This paper summarizes and highlights the results of HUMOR objectives and proposes a general methodology to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty on long-term coastal morphological evolution.