The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession

摘要

Macroeconomic forecasts are used to make decisions by everyone from business leaders to government policymakers. But the forecasts they rely on are most flawed just when they are most needed. The authors present an analysis of the accuracy of forecasts, focusing specifically on the latest recession in the United States. It is fair to conclude that economists completely failed to anticipate the fall in GDP and employment.