Evaluation of prognostic factors and scoring system in colonic perforation

摘要

AIM: To study the significance of scoring systems assessing severity and prognostic factors in patients with colonic perforation. METHODS: A total of 26 patients (9 men, 17 women; mean age 72.7 ± 11.6 years) underwent emergency operation for colorectal perforation in our institution between 1993 and 2005. Several clinical factors were measured preoperatively and 24 h postoperatively. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ), Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) and peritonitis index of Altona (PIA Ⅱ) scores were calculated preoperatively. RESULTS: Overall postoperative mortality rate was 23.1% (6 patients). Compared with survivors, non-survivors displayed low blood pressure, low serum protein and high serum creatinine preoperatively, and low blood pressure, low white blood cell count, low pH, low PaO_2/FiO_2, and high serum creatinine postoperatively. APACHE Ⅱ score was significantly lower in survivors than in non-survivors (10.4 ± 3.84 vs 19.3 ± 2.87, P = 0.00003). Non-survivors tended to display high MPI score and low PIA Ⅱ score, but no significant difference was identified. CONCLUSION: Pre- and postoperative blood pressure and serum creatinine level appear related to prognosis of colonic perforation. APACHE Ⅱ score is most associated with prognosis and scores ≥ 20 are associated with significantly increased mortality rate.