The shakeout in the airline industry combined with impending war in Iraq has left the manufacturers and the lessors with severe headaches. Airbus is being quite optimistic about its deliveries this year, predicting 300, the same as in 2002, while Boeing is being more cautious, forecasting 280, 100 less than in 2002. Much more problematic is where their orders are going to come from. This table summarises the relative importance of the five main customer groups both historically - i.e. net orders for jets placed and deliveries taken - and currently - i.e. backlogs as at the end of 2002. The major carriers account for 75% of orders and 82% of deliveries but only 38% of the current backlog. The LCCs account for only 8% of orders and 5% of deliveries but now have 22% of the backlog. The two mega-lessors, ILFC and GECAS, dominate the current backlog, with 40%, while they have placed 18% of orders and 12% of deliveries.
展开▼
