Planning the reconstruction of a historical building by using a fuzzy stochastic network

摘要

The planning, of construction projects that feature the reconstruction of historical buildings is a difficult task due to limited knowledge of their structure in terms of architecture and construction, as well as their historical substance. Thus, the planning phase of such a project needs to include various different scenarios for carrying it out, while the occurrence of these scenarios will be random. The uncertainty related to the estimation of the various parameters regarding the particular types of reconstruction work, as well as the probability of their necessity, their duration and cost is also a problem. In an attempt to address these problems, the authors of the paper have suggested a method of planning construction projects involving the reconstruction of historical buildings, which features the use of stochastic networks to model the undetermined structure of such projects; elements of fuzzy logic in the form of interval sets are used to model the uncertainty in estimating the parameters of reconstruction works. The authors have also pointed out the advantage of using this approach over the use of type-1 fuzzy logic, which is currently widely used. In order to improve and shorten the calculation process, a digital tool has been developed for the method in question, which can be put into practical use by property developers and other decision-makers when dealing with problems tied to the planning of the processes of the reconstruction of buildings, especially those of a historical nature. The method presented in the paper and its digital implementation has been used in the modeling and analysis of the construction project featuring the reconstruction of a historical retaining wall at the Wawel Royal Castle in Krakow, which serves as a typical example of a construction project with an undetermined structure. The results that were obtained were compared with the actual results of the project in question, confirming the usefulness of the method.