County-level hurricane exposure and birth rates: application of difference-in-differences analysis for confounding control

摘要

BackgroundEpidemiological analyses of aggregated data are often used to evaluate theoretical health effects of natural disasters. Such analyses are susceptible to confounding by unmeasured differences between the exposed and unexposed populations. To demonstrate the difference-in-difference method our population included all recorded Florida live births that reached 20 weeks gestation and conceived after the first hurricane of 2004 or in 2003 (when no hurricanes made landfall). Hurricane exposure was categorized using ≥74 mile per hour hurricane wind speed as well as a 60 km spatial buffer based on weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The effect of exposure was quantified as live birth rate differences and 95 % confidence intervals [RD (95 % CI)]. To illustrate sensitivity of the results, the difference-in-differences estimates were compared to general linear models adjusted for census-level covariates. This analysis demonstrates difference-in-differences as a method to control for time-invariant confounders investigating hurricane exposure on live birth rates.