气候变化下湟水河西宁段区域水文变化研究

摘要

Taking Xining reach of the Huangshui River as an example,based on linear regression method,the moving average method, Mann-Kendall trend test method and plain t-test method for climate change trends analysis in this basin,and then it built climate change scenarios,and used SWAT model to simulate the regional hydrological changes. The results indicate that the temperature and rainfall changes have significantly increased during the study period,the linear rate of change of the precipitation and average temperature is 20. 01 mm/ 10 a and 0. 12 ℃ / 10 a respectively;runoff increases with precipitation,while the temperatures rise and runoff reduces and precipitation effects more obviously.%采用线性回归法、滑动平均法、Mann － Kendall趋势检验法和滑动 t检验法对湟水河流域气候变化趋势进行了分析，在此基础上构建气候变化情景，利用SWAT模型进行了湟水河西宁段水文变化模拟。结果表明：1955—2010年气温与降水量均呈明显上升趋势，降水量、年均气温的线性变化率分别为20．01 mm／10 a、0．12℃／10 a；径流随降水量的增加而增加，随气温的升高而减少，且降水量变化对径流的影响更明显。