针对城市轨道交通PPP项目风险繁多复杂等特点,为保障PPP项目的成功实施,提出基于改进熵权灰色模糊理论的风险评价方法.首先,考虑风险动态性特征,采用Delphi法对城市轨道交通PPP项目全生命周期风险按阶段进行有效识别,建立相应的风险指标体系;其次,通过灰色聚类与模糊综合评判法相结合构建城市轨道交通PPP项目风险评价模型,利用灰色白化权函数实现风险指标信息的透明化,借助模糊理论计算风险综合评价值,判断项目风险等级,并采用改进熵权法与层次分析法相结合的方法确定主客观权重;最后,将模型应用于青岛地铁3号线实际案例中.研究结果表明该项目风险等级为"中等",评价模型具有合理性与有效性,同时提出相应的风险应对措施.%The PPP projects of urban rail transit are always characterized by multiple complex risks.Hence,in order to guarantee the successful implementation of PPP projects,the risk assessment method based on improved entropy weight and grey fuzzy theory is proposed.Firstly,the risk dynamic characteristics are considered,the Delphi method is used to identify the whole life cycle risk of the urban rail PPP project and the corresponding risk index system is established. And then the risk assessment model for urban rail transit PPP project is established by grey clustering combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;the risk index information transparency is realized by grey whitenized weight function;the comprehensive risk assessment value is calculated by fuzzy theory to determine the risk level of the project;and the subjective and objective weights are determined by improved entropy weight method combined with analytic hierarchy process.Finally,the model is applied to Qingdao Metro Line 3.The results show that the project risk level belongs to "medium";and the model is rational and efficient;some corresponding countermeasures for risks are proposed too.
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