定居和旅游开发是引发少数民族牧民生存环境变迁的重要外部力量。文章以新疆天山天池和那拉提生态旅游区为实证点，采用因子分析法提取了研究牧民适应的五个变量。在对可能影响牧民适应的牧民属性特征和五个适应变量采用相关分析法进行初选后，借用累积logistic模型对初选的因素开展回归分析，对参与旅游业发展定居牧民变迁环境适应影响因素的种类、影响程度、重要度顺序等开展研究。研究结果验证了这五个变量是影响牧民变迁环境适应的主要因素；其重要度自高至低依次是生产经营因子、社会文化因子、生活与交往因子、年龄、受教育程度。对生产经营适应程度高的牧民，其对定居生活感到适应的发生比为其他人的1.44倍。%Settlement and tourism development initiate the important external forces of living environment transition of minority herdsmen.This article takes Tianshan Tianchi and Nalati in Xinjiang as the object of research,extracts five variables to research the pastoralists adaptation by factor analysis,and carries out the primary selection to find out those that may affect the factors of pastoralists'property characteristics and five adaptive variables by correlation analysis,further uses the regression analysis to study the primary selected factors by borrowing cumulative logistic model,researches the type,the degree and the order of influencing factors of the adaptive living environment transition of settled pastoralists who participate in tourism.Research results verify that the five variables are the main factors that affect the adaptation of living environment transition of pastoralists;their importance degree from high to low is in the order of production and management factor,socio-cultural factors,life and communication factors,age, education level.For those pastoralists with high degree adaptation of production operations,they feel 1.44 times more adaptive res-ident life than others.
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