蔡英文博弈思维下的两岸新型冲突模式及解决方案

摘要

本文运用博弈论分析蔡英文的两岸政策思维及其对两岸冲突模式的影响,认为其"优势策略"是"尝试台独",通过"柔性台独"策略达成"事实台独"目标.未来两岸关系将进入隐性斗争模式,但也不排除向低度合作模式或显性斗争模式转变的可能.两岸新型冲突模式的根本解决方案是蔡英文承认"九二共识"的核心意涵,暂行解决方案是在"蔡英文任内不追求法理台独、大陆不阻挠蔡英文施政及连任"策略组合下达成"纳什均衡".%This paper uses game theory to make a detai1ed ana1ysis of Tsai Ing-wen's cross-Strait po1icy thinking and its impact on the conf1ict mode,be1ieving that her"dominant strategy"is"trying Taiwan independence"and to achieve the goa1 of"de facto Taiwan independence"through the strategy of"f1exib1e Taiwan independence". The future cross-Strait re1ations wi11 enter a covert strugg1e mode but it a1so cannot ru1e out the possibi1ity of transitioning to a 1ow-degree cooperation mode or an overt strugg1e mode. In fact,the u1timate so1ution to the new cross-Strait conf1ict mode 1ies in the core imp1ication that Tsai Ing-wenre recognizes the core the"1992 Consensus", but the provisiona1 so1ution is to achieve the"Nash equi1ibrium"under the combination of"no pursuit of 1ega1 independence during Tsai Ing-wen's tenure,and no obstruction by the main1and of Tsai's administration and re-e1ection".