在选择变电站设备时,除了考虑设备的购置费用外,还得详细地考虑设备的的运行成本和维护成本,才能够全面的评估设备寿命周期成本。以变压器为例,通过收集某种类型变压器的监测及实验数据,运用故障树方法对变压器故障率进行评估,使用Marquardt法对此类变压器的寿命周期故障率曲线进行拟合;然后引入预防性维修的役龄回退因子,以便揭示寿命周期内预防性维修与故障率的动态变化规律;最后运用全寿命周期成本模型和年金值法评估此类变压器的最佳寿命周期。%For fully assessing the life cycle costs of substation equipments, except the purchase costs of equipments, the detailed operating and maintenance costs need to be considered as they be selected. Taking the power transformers for example and collecting the monitoring and experimental data of a certain type transformer, by adopting the Fault Tree method this paper assesses its failure rate, and fits its failure rate curves of life cycle via the Marquardt method; and then the age reduction factor of equipment preventive maintenance is introduced for revealing the dynamic change of failure rate with equipment preventive maintenance in a life cycle; and finally, with the life cycle cost （LCC） model and annuity value method, the optimum life cycle of the selected type of transformer is assessed.
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