舰船总体任务可靠性的多阶段工程分析法

摘要

To solving the problems existed in traditional approaches to evaluating whole ship's mission reliability, a phased engineering analysis approach is provided. Mission phases of navy vessels are analyzed and phased mission measures of success and relationships between whole mission and phased missions are demonstrated. Fault severity of equipment and its influence are analyzed, and corresponding treatments are put forward. Mission reliability models for different phases are built up, and then the whole ship's mission reliability model can be worked out. Finally, the requirements for navy vessel at different combat backgrounds are discussed; the feasibility of the approach is verified through an example of antiaircraft operation.%针对以往舰船总体任务可靠性研究中存在的问题,提出了一种多阶段工程分析方法,对舰船执行任务的各个阶段进行了详细分析,指明了各阶段任务成功的准则及其与舰船总体任务之间的关系;结合舰船执行任务的实际需求,对装备故障与重要程度进行了分析并提出了处理方法,对舰船执行任务的各个阶段进行了任务可靠性建模,综合得出了舰船总体任务可靠性模型.最后,按不同作战背景对舰船的要求进行了讨论,并以舰船执行对空任务为例,通过建模与仿真得出了舰船执行对空作战任务的可靠度,验证了该方法的可行性.