We divide the north margin of Western Qingling Fault zone into six segments on the basis of new geology data , namely , Baoji, Tianshui, Wushan , Zhangxian , Huangxianggou and Guomatan segment from east to west. Each segment not only can rupture independently , but also can rupture together with others. The probability of seismic potential on these six segments and two combination segments is computed with the time-dependent seismic potential probability estimate method. We find from the result that.both the Huangxianggou and Zhangxian segments have the biggest probability of rupture in the future ; and Tianshui segment is the second. If there will be a combined rupture ,it is most likely to happen in Huangxianggou and Zhangxian segments,both of which have higher earthquake risk. We also compute b value along the fault zone. The image of b value indicates a high accumulated stress on the Huangxianggou and Tianshui segments. So we suppose that the two areas are the main locations where strong earthquakes may occur in the future.%根据最新地质考察和历史地震考证结果,西秦岭北缘断裂带从东到西可划分为宝鸡、天水、武山、漳县、黄香沟和锅麻滩共6个次级断裂段.上述断裂既具有单段破裂,又具有多段组合破裂的特征.利用时间相依的地震潜势概率评估方法,对这6个单段分别进行地震危险性概率评估,其中黄香沟段和漳县段发生单段破裂的可能性最大,天水段发生单段破裂的概率次之.若发生组合破裂,黄香沟段和漳县段组合破裂可能性大.同时,根据沿断裂带的6值扫描图像分析结果显示,黄香沟段和天水附近应力积累较高,这两个地区应是未来发生强震的主要段落,值得关注.
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