我国房地产泡沫成因分析

摘要

Using inter-provincial panel data and fixed effects regression model, this paper conducts an em-pirical analysis of the causes of the real estate bubble from the generalized virtual economic point of view and finds that the financial attributes, political attributes of the real estate and market level have a significant impact on the real estate bubble. From the point of the ifnancial function, real estate ifnancial attributes has a positive role in promoting bubble;while from the financial point of view, the real estate financial attributes has a negative effect on bubble. In addition, political attributes of the real estate and market level have a sig-niifcant positive effect on the real estate bubble.%房地产泡沫是否受到制度因素的影响？市场化进程、地方政府的政绩驱动和房地产的金融属性孰轻孰重？通过固定效应回归模型分析我国地区面板数据，我们研究我国房地产泡沫的成因。从广义虚拟经济角度出发，我们认为银行信贷、GDP比重和市场化进程是房地产价格泡沫的构成因素。房地产的金融属性、政治属性以及市场化水平高低对房地产泡沫具有显著的影响。其中，从金融功能说来看，房地产的金融属性对房地产价格泡沫具有推动作用；而从金融产品说来看，房地产的金融属性对房地产泡沫具有抑制作用。此外，房地产的政治属性和市场化水平对房地产泡沫有明显的推升效应。