老龄化对微观储蓄有生命周期消费效应和预防效应两方面影响,对我国家庭的净效应尚不明确.利用中国家庭追踪调查2010—2014年面板数据,分析了家庭年龄结构与储蓄率的关系,显示老龄化对我国微观家庭储蓄率的净效应为正,说明家庭由于老龄化产生的预防动机大于生命周期消费模式对储蓄率的负效应,我国以此收获第二次人口红利.老龄化对家庭是否选择储蓄和储蓄规模都有显著正效应,说明第二次人口红利同时体现在微观储蓄的参与决策和数量决策上.以上结论在对不同类型储蓄和消费的回归中均稳健.此外,老龄化虽提高了各收入阶层、区域和城乡家庭的储蓄,但对收入水平较低的家庭和农村、中西部家庭影响更大,间接印证了老龄化对微观储蓄率的正效应源于第二次人口红利的预防动机.%Ageing has both precaution effects and negative effects from the perspective of life cycle consumption theory on savings and thus its net effects on Chinese families is unclear so far.This paper empirically investigates the relationship between age structure and saving rate of Chinese families using China Family Panel Studies datasets.The results demonstrate that ageing has significantly positive effects on families' saving rate, meaning that the proactive and precaution savings incurred by ageing is bigger than the negative effects pointed out by life cycle consumption theory.Therefore, China could reap the second demographic dividend.Moreover, ageing has significantly positive effects on both whether families choose to save and how much to save.In the robust analysis, this paper analyzes the influence of ageing on three different kinds of savings, saving rate, consumption and consumption rate and gets consistent results.Moreover, the above conclusion is supported by the sub-sample analysis on different income status families, urban and rural families and families in different regions.Furthermore,the effects of ageing are smaller on the higher income families.And the effect is larger for the urban families and eastern families than the families in the rural families and middle-western families.These results implied that the positive impact of ageing on micro saving rate might come from the second population dividend.
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