2010/2011年度中国稻米市场形势分析及2011/2012年度展望

摘要

In 2010/11,the yield and consumption of rice were both increased and the former is larger than the latter in China,the nervous provisionment were relaxed by the condition of yield increasing,the price of rice rising trend,but the price of indica and japonica rices appeared discrepancies because of supply and demand,the frequency and intensity of national policy far higher than in previous years and it affect the situation of rice.Outlook 2011/12,the situation will be complex,on the one hand,the yield to continue to a bumper harvest and the more the balance,on the other hand,the rising prices and cost,overcapacity,policy adjustment et al,the rice market may be appear the condition of constant after winter trend.%2010/11年度,我国稻谷产量继续增长,稻米消费量也有增加,稻谷产量大于消费量;由于粳稻增产较多,粳稻米供给紧张的矛盾明显缓和;稻米价格整体呈上升走势,但受供求等因素影响,粳籼稻米价格呈差异走势;国家政策调控频率和力度远高于往年,对稻谷市场形势产生了较大的影响。展望2011/12年度,稻米市场形势较往年更为复杂,虽然稻谷继续丰收,产需平衡结余也较多,但受物价上涨、种稻成本增加,加工产能过剩和政策调控等多种因素影响,稻米市场价格涨跌空间都有限,总体上呈稳中有升态势。