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中国天然气海外资源获取的风险分析

         

摘要

26 suppliers of natural gas resources were selected based on the geographical distribution of conventional natural gas, unconventional gas distribution and international gas trade flows. Appraisal target system of the risk for acquisition of natural gas was established for quantitative analysis. This paper divides the risks for acquisition of natural gas into three levels. These are:risk index of the ifrst level is 1 to 2, which shows that we should be actively to obtain the natural gas resources in these countries;risk index of the second level is 2 to 3, which means that we can obtain the natural gas resources in these countries, but the risk is bigger, we need to be considered carefully before obtaining;risk index of the third level is more than 3 with highest risk. Therefore, this paper points out that we should strengthen the participation and involvement in areas of the world's energy resources, and implement the strategy of peripheral target priority. Meanwhile, we should perfect the overseas gas investment insurance system as soon as possible;and make an attempt on establishing a special fund for natural gas exploration and development so as to provide support or low-interest loan for risk project.%根据常规天然气的地理分布、非常规天然气分布以及国际天然气贸易流向,优选出26个天然气资源供给国,建立天然气获取风险评价指标体系进行定量分析。获取海外天然气资源的风险划分为三个等级:第一等级,风险指数为1-2,表示可以积极获取这些国家的天然气资源;第二等级,风险指数为2-3,表示可以获取这些国家的天然气资源,但风险较大,获取前需谨慎考虑;第三等级,风险指数为3以上,风险最高。我国天然气资源海外投资要加强对世界能源资源领域的参与和介入;应实施周边目标国优先战略;尽快完善海外天然气投资保险制度,尝试通过建立天然气勘探开发专项基金对风险项目提供资助或者低息贷款。

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