云模式预报雨量与雷达估测雨量及自动站实测雨量比较

摘要

By using the 2007-2008 rainfall data from GRAPES cloud model product, radar estimation and automatic weather station, the basic statistic characteristics and geographical distribution of precipitation and the corresponding relativities are analyzed. Also, the complex relationships among them are analyzed based on 129 samples. The results show that there is a good complex relationship. The maximum hourly rainfall value from GRAPES cloud model is larger than those from radar estimation and measurement.%利用2007-2008年1-12月国家气象中心GRAPES云模式预报雨量资料，及同期江西区域天气雷达估测雨量及自动气象站实测雨量资料，比较其基本统计与地理分布特征，并对其进行相关计算与结果分析，选取129个数据样本，计算分析它们之间的复相关性，并对其计算误差进行比较与分析。结果表明，三种雨量的复相关性较好，GRAPES云模式预测的时雨量值最大，比雷达估测的时雨量值及自动站实测的时雨量值偏大，自动站实测时雨量值次之，雷达估测的时雨量值偏小。