考虑出行链的城市货运量与交通量的转换模型研究

摘要

Since freight has the characteristic of multi-dimensional measurement, various transformation models are needed to keep index consistent when forecasting traffic demand produced by freight. Transformation between freight and traffic volumes is especially important for the commodity-based freight traffic demand forecasting, ln this paper, on the base of trip chain theory, the trip behavior of freight vehicles has been analysed, and trip chain modes have been summarized. A transformation model between freight and traffic volumes was set up based on some proper assumptions, considering trip chain of freight vehicles. Then, as an example of a city, the freight traffic distribution OD matrix has been calculated using the model approved. According to the results, the proportion of empty trips and the error to the actual freight trips was indicated.%由于货运具有衡量尺度多维化的特点，在进行货运交通需求预测时，需要建立各种转换模型来保证指标的统一。在“基于货物”的货运交通需求预测方法中，货运量与交通量的转换是货运交通分配前的重要步骤之一。本文以出行链理论为基础，分析了货运车辆的出行行为，总结了货运车辆的出行链模式，基于一系列假设条件建立了考虑出行链的货运量与交通量的转换模型，并运用模型计算了某市货运交通量的OD分布矩阵，分析了其货运空车出行量占出行总量的比例，和出行总量与实际货运出行总量的误差。