考虑随机事件对公交系统能力的影响，作者定义了公交网络中乘客的出行费用可靠性指标，以衡量不确定环境下的公交服务水平。该指标定义为在公交系统能力随机变化情况下，在给定的OD对之间，乘客能够按照预定费用顺利完成出行的概率。采用基于用户平衡准则的公交配流模型描述公交乘客的路径选择行为，给出了基于蒙特卡洛仿真的公交出行费用可靠性的计算方法。用一个算例对公交网络出行费用可靠性指标及其计算方法进行了验证。%Considering the impact caused by stochastic events in the capacity of a transit system, a travel cost reliability indicator was defined to measure the service level of a transit network under an uncertain environment. It was defined as the probability that for a given OD pair, passengers could complete a trip within a travel cost budget under the random change capacity of a transit network. The user-equilibrium-based transit assignment model was used to describe the transit passenger’s route choice behavior, and a Monte-Carlo-simulation based procedure was presented for the evaluation of the travel cost reliability. Finally, the feasibility of the travel cost reliability indicator and its measure were demonstrated by the numerical results of the traffic network.
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