甘肃省能源消费碳足迹变化及影响因素分析

摘要

Energy consumption is one of the main human activities driving global climate change, and therefore research on the carbon footprint of energy consumption is of great significance. In this paper, concepts and methods relating to the carbon footprint of energy consumption were used to calculate total carbon footprint, carbon footprint of each type of energy, output value of the carbon footprint and its ecological pressure from 1990 to 2009 in Gansu Province, northwestern China. The ridge regression function within the STIRPAT model was applied to study the quantitative relationship between carbon footprint and economic growth and at the same time verify the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve. A decoupling index was introduced to further explore the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon footprint. We found that the total carbon footprint increased from 0.091 ha per capita in 1990 to 0.191 ha per capita in 2009 and fol owed a lfuctuating rising trend. Coal and oil occupy the dominant position within the carbon footprint composition, while natural gas is of little effect. The output value of the carbon footprint increased from 11 800 CNY per ha in 1990 to 25 100 CNY per ha in 2009, representing an average annual growth rate of 4.1%. The ecological pressure intensity of the carbon footprint increased to 0.24 in 2009, and remains much lower than developed provinces Jiangsu and Shanghai, due to the vast area of woodland in Gansu. Development of a low-carbon economy in Gansu remains hindered by limited energy, a fragile ecological environment and irrational energy structure. Population and GDP per capita growth were the main factors driving the increasing carbon footprint; the impact of population is 3.47 times of that of per capita GDP. Regression analysis and decoupling index analysis have proved the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for economic growth and carbon footprint, but 33 years are required to reach the inlfection point.%能源消费是人类活动影响全球气候变化的主要行为之一，对能源消费导致的碳足迹进行研究具有重要意义。本文首先应用能源消费碳足迹的相关概念和方法，计算得到了甘肃省1990年-2009年的总碳足迹、各能源消费类型的碳足迹、碳足迹产值和碳足迹生态压力；然后利用STIRPAT模型进行岭回归函数拟合，探讨了经济增长与碳足迹之间的定量关系，并验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性；最后通过脱钩指数分析进一步研究了经济增长与碳足迹之间的动态变化关系。结果表明：碳足迹从1990年的每人0.091 ha上升为2009年的每人0.191 ha，呈现波动上升的趋势。各能源消费类型的碳足迹构成中，煤和石油占据了绝对地位，其中又以煤所占比重最大，石油次之，天然气所起的作用甚微。碳足迹产值由1990年的1.18万元 ha-1增加为2009年的2.51万元 ha-1，碳足迹生态压力也从1990年的0.10上升至2009年的0.24。人口和人均GDP是驱动碳足迹增长的主要因素，且回归分析和脱钩指数分析都表明经济增长与碳足迹之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线。