基于Lotka-Volterra的微博谣言事件演进分析

摘要

As an important communication tool of the new media era, microblog provides fertile ground for rumor's spreading. Rumors and the corresponding anti-rumors compete in the communication process for more people's trust. The regular pattern of rumors and anti-rumors' the interaction propagation is researched;it can help clarify the rumors more quickly and efficiently. Based on the Lotka-Volter-ra model in ecology, we construct the model of the dissemination of rumors and anti-rumors, solve its equilibrium points and stability un-der the four patterns of mutual promotion and mutual inhibition, then we find the final stable state just relates to the influence coefficients between rumors and anti-rumors. It is well known that microblog rumors are hard to eliminate, the paper attempts to explain the reasons from theoretical analysis and a case study. In order to examine the validity of the model, we choose a real case on the Sina Weibo microb-log platform, collect the related test data, and then use Eviews to fit the model. Finally, some suggestions on how to deal with rumors and manage the microblog are proposed.%微博作为新媒体时代的重要工具，为谣言的传播提供了沃土，谣言及其相伴而生的反谣言在传播过程中相互竞争。研究微博谣言事件中，谣言和反谣言的交互演进规律有助于快速有效地澄清谣言。借鉴生态学中的Lotka-Volterra种间竞争模型，建立了谣言-反谣言的传播模型，分析其在相互抑制、相互促进、促进-抑制、抑制-促进的四种作用模式下的平衡点，研究发现最终的平衡点仅由谣言-反谣言之间的影响系数来决定，同时试图以微博案例来解释微博谣言难以根除的原因。为验证模型的有效性，采用了微博2013年8月“成都高新区奥克斯广场发生劫持公交事件”的谣言事件为实证案例，采集微博相关数据，对模型进行了较好的拟合。最后提出了应对谣言、管理微博的建议。