以信息扩散的角度来考察中国企业对外投资决策过程,能进一步解释投资者区域选择演化路径和关键影响因素.本文将对外投资面临的信息分为主观和客观信息,以生态学演化角度将投资决策过程看做不同信息竞争的过程.在 Lotka-Volterra 模型基础上构建对外投资区域选择模型,刻画主观信息影响下投资区域选择模仿对海外投资量及区域分布的影响,并进行仿真模拟研究.结果表明区域选择平衡量与信息替代系数(信息竞争力)密切相关,且与区域投资容纳量正相关;而到达平衡状态的时间与信息自然扩散率相关.同时,研究发现主观信息下模仿行为的存在,对投资区域分布结构产生影响,会造成某一区域的投资集聚,并引发更多投资,促使投资总规模超出区域投资容纳量,加剧中国企业之间的竞争.%China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has increased dramatically in recent years. OFDI accounted for $102.9 billion in the year of 2014, up 14.1% from a year earlier, and involved more than 156 countries and regions around the world. In general, China’s OFDI has achieved regional diversity. However, it has a high market concentration ratio in developed countries such as U.S., and Australia. There are more than 60% of projects that have been invested in developed countries, most of which are large scale projects. Furthermore, China’s OFDI has the higher year-on-year growth in developed countries in 2014, up 23.9% in U.S. and 1.7 times in EU. However, in reality the developed countries set many barriers to China’s OFDI. It makes Chinese enterprises more difficult to invest in these area, even to suffer huge losses. Then, why are they keen to investing in developed counties? There are lots of literatures considering that the major driving factors are incentive normative market order, rich resources, excellent investment environment, advanced technology, and so on. However, it is not enough to explain the formation of the unequal relationship between investment scale and the rate of investment yield from China’s OFDI in developed counties. China’s OFDI process is caused by mass information diffusion and choice. On one hand, development policy and other relevant information in the developed countries quickly spread through efficient communication technologies, which form the objective basis for investment decision. On the other hand, the early practices provide reference for the later investors and influence their investment decisions. In the early 90s, some large enterprises of China which entered into the international market early had been inclined to invest in developed countries. As a typical successful case, Haier group caused a sensation of domestic and foreign media. Such behavior of "Influencer" or "Opinion Leader" improves the diffusion speed of information and media attention. From the present studies, herd behavior in stock market and Lotka-Volterra model which describes dynamic competitive relationship between populations in ecology is suitable for explaining the innovation of market selection innovation, the evolution process of imitating, and the diffusion and competition between different types of information. Therefore, this paper uses ecological methods and adopts the perspective of information diffusion. We divide information into subjective and objective information which the investors will face during OFDI. And we analyze the behavior on investment location selection of different information adopters. In the first part, according to the analysis of the objective information diffusion, investment decision, subjective information diffusion, investment imitating, investment regional agglomeration and competition, we analyze the evolution mechanisms of investment regional selection. In the second part, according to innovation and imitation behavior of investors, we build foreign investment area selection model based on Lotka-Volterra, and analyze the dynamic evolution of OFDI decisions, as well as the practical significance of the model in China’s OFDI. In the third part, we verify key factors that can influence information diffusion through simulation. According to the analysis of the influence of investment imitation on the regional distribution structure and aggregate investment under the subjective information, we dissect the formation and evolution path of China's OFDI decision-making on areas of investment and problems. At last, we draw a conclusion and propound countermeasures of China’s OFDI on area selection. The findings of this paper provide theoretical and practical values to optimize China’s OFDI strategy.
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