基于最佳维数的组合预测模型对冲击地压预测辨识研究

摘要

根据矿山应力监测数据,通过不同维数建模确定了单项预测模型的最佳维数.根据最小二乘法原理求解了单项预测组合系数,建立了杏山铁矿基于最佳维数的组合预测模型,并对应力后续变化趋势进行了预测检验和分析.预测结果的误差分析表明,此种方法建立的组合预测模型预测精度高、离散性小,预测结果比较理想.%According to the monitoring data of mine stress,the optimal dimension of the single prediction mod-el is determined by modeling the different dimension numbers.According to the principle of least square meth-od,the single prediction combination coefficient is solved,and the combined forecasting model based on the optimum dimension of Xingshan iron mine is established,and the trend of stress subsequent change is predic-ted and analyzed.The error analysis of the predicted results shows that the combined forecasting model based on this method has high precision,small discreteness and ideal prediction results.