基于LMDI的四川省能源消费碳排放因素分解

摘要

对四川省的碳排放量进行了核算，并运用LMDI模型分析了人口规模、经济发展、能源结构、产业结构、能源强度和碳排放系数对碳排放量的影响。结果表明：人口规模的增加、经济的快速发展和能源消费结构是引发2000～2010年四川省碳排放量增长的主要因素，产业结构对四川省的碳排放影响甚微，能源强度的降低一定程度上缓解了碳排放量增势。%With the great development of western China ,energy consumption and carbon emission in Sichuan province are increasing .This article checks carbon emission in Sichuan and adopts LMDI model to analyze the influence of population size ,economic development ,energy structure ,industrial structure ,energy intensity and carbon emission factor on the carbon emission .T he results show that the increasing population size ,rapid development of economy and energy consumption structure are the main factors that trigger the increase of carbon emission in Sichuan between 2000 and 2010 ;industrial structure has little influence on carbon emis‐sion ,and to some extent ,the decrease of energy intensity has eased the increasing carbon emission .