太原盆地地震潜势分析

摘要

The Taiyuan basin is divided into four sections; the Taiyuan-Wenshui area and the Fenyang area, the Taigu area and the Jiexiu-Pingyao area. The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Taiyuan basin is analysed, with real-time probability model, the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for a-bove each section. The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Taiyuan-Wenshui area, the Taigu area in the next 50 years are 7.1% ,15% ,in the next 100 years are 13.9% ,27. 8% , while the Fenyang and the Taigu areas have very low possibility of earthquake larger than magnitude 7.%将太原盆地划分为4个区段,利用近年来在各区段取得的古地震数据,通过实时概率模型,对每个区段分别进行强震潜势的定量评估.得出太原-文水区与太谷区未来50年内发生7级以上强震的概率分别为7.1％和15％,100年内为13.9％与27.8％,而介休-平遥区与汾阳区发生7级以上强震的可能性极小.