官员历练、经济增长与政治擢升——基于1978～2008年中国省级官员的经验证据

摘要

Using the index of practice and experience of officials （PEO） based on the handle - collected data from political process of provincial officials in China, and substituting economic growth by acceleration of GDP growth rate, this paper examines the influence of both PEO and economi6 growth on the promotion of provincial officials. The resuhs show that both PEO and economic growth have significant effects on the promotion of provincial officials. Specifically, the results indicate that： （ 1 ） There is a significantly positive relation between the promotion of provincial officials and both PEO and economic growth, and the PEO are more sensitive to the promotion of provincial officials. （2） After classifying four types of PEO, the results show that there is a significantly positive relation between the likelihood of the promotion of provincial officials and central experience, business experience and economic growth. （ 3 ） The results of regional sub - samples and sub - samples of time periods indicate the asymmetry influence of PEO and economics growth on the promotion of provincial officials.%本文手工搜集了1978—2008年期间中国省级官员政治生涯变动的经验数据，构建了“官员历练”指数，以GDP增长率的加速度作为经济增长的替代，研究了官员历练和经济增长凼素对省级官员的政治擢升产生的竞争性影响。本文研究结果一致表明，官员历练与经济增长凶素均显著影响了省级官员的擢升：（1）省级官员（含总体、省委书记子样本、省长子样本）的擢升概率与官员历练（包括虚拟变量及历练指数）、经济增长均显著正相关，但对官员历练因素更为敏感；（2）区分具体的官员历练类型后的结果表明，省级官员的擢升概率与中央工作经历、企业工作经历、经济增长均显著正相关；（3）按照地域与时间区问的分组研究结果表明，官员历练与经济增长对省级官员的擢升具有不对称的影响。