天然气管线工程不断扩建增输,作为天然气输送动力源的压缩机组能否安全、可靠的运行十分重要.传统的安全监测因指标权重不具备随工况自适应调整的能力,评估结论的准确性不高.利用博弈理论,提出一种评估指标权重的自适应调配机制和基于时间立体视角的综合评估方法,并用该方法对某一增压站天然气燃压机组进行实例评估分析.结果表明,该方法可动态跟踪并预示系统的安全状态,提高了动态安全评估的准确性,有效抑制了故障的苗头.现场测试验证了该方法的有效性.%The secure and reliable operation of natural gas compressor is very important because natural gas transmission pipeline project increases continuously. The accuracy of dynamic safety assessment is not high using traditional security monitoring method because target weight does not have the adaptive ability with the condition changing. An adaptive deployment mechanism of index weighting and an integrated assessment model based on 3-D time perspective were proposed using game theory. Taking gas-turbine/compressor of a gas booster station as instance, the assessment analysis was done using the method. The results show that the safety states are tracked and predicted dynamicly based on the proposed methods, which is conducive to improve the accuracy of assessment in dynamic environment. The fault symptoms are restrained. The validity of the method was proved by field test.
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