基于贝叶斯序贯方法的微波效应实验设计

摘要

提出了一种基于贝叶斯验后概率的序贯检验方法,建立了检验的判别准则,给出了判别准则临界值的计算方法.在给定截尾实验次数的条件下,提出了一种截尾方案,建立了截尾判断方法.将其用于解决验证效应物在微波作用下失效概率达到给定水平的微波效应实验设计问题,给出了相应的实验方案和所需样本量的估计.最后,通过实例对上述方法的应用过程进行了说明,并和现有方法进行了分析比较.%A sequential test method based on Bayesian posterior probability was proposed to perform tests of hypotheses a-bout probability of success of binomial distribution in complicated hypothesis conditions. The decision rules were constructed and the method for calculating the criterion value was given. For a given maximal sample size, the truncated method of judge criteria for hypothesis test was discussed. An experimental program was given to test the hypotheses about the probability of failure of device affected by microwave using the proposed method. At last, an example was presented to illustrate the proposed method and the result is compared with that of the existing methods.