基于后悔值模型的化工园区应急避难场所选址分析

摘要

化工园区内危险源数量多，分布广，易发生火灾爆炸等突发性灾害事故，人员应急避难场所选址相对复杂。以后悔值理论为基础，结合效用函数，构建了后悔值模型对化工园区内避难场所选址问题进行研究。主要考虑了园区内各化工企业区域分布、事故影响范围、避难人数需求、事故发生概率等因素对避难所选址的影响，结合灾害时避难人数分布情况和从聚集点向避难所转移实际所需时间提出了等效时间的概念。最后将模型应用于小虎岛化工园区避难所的选址问题，并对模型中表征风险规避程度的参数θ和后悔遗憾程度的参数δ的敏感性进行了分析。%Site selection for the evacuation shelters in chemical industry park is complicated due to plenty of hazardous sources widely distributed.On the basis of regret theory,a regret-model is established combining the utility function to study the site selection problemfor the evacuation shelters in chemical industry park.The effects on shelters caused by factories location, accident influence scope,number of evacuees,and probability of the accidents are considered.A concept of equivalent time is proposed based on the evacuee distribution and actual transfer time.Finally,the proposed model is applied to a chemical industry park,and the sensibility of parameters involved in the model is analyzed.